Browsing Tag

sovereign debt crisis

ECB and Portuguese Deal Keep Euro Firm

The euro continues to surge this morning, trading ahead of $1.49, despite some US short covering against some of the majors and a mixed tone in risk appetite, buoyed by a combination of drivers. For one, many see the risk premium in the…

Catalysts for Change in the FX Driver

The main driver that has led to a persistent decline in the US dollar through the last several months is the divergent thrust of monetary policy. It has left the Federal Reserve as a laggard in the global cycle and, in turn, has left the…

Thinking about Haircuts

What a cruel month April has been to the peripheral debt markets. Greek 10-year yields have risen 349 bp, more than the cumulative increase over the previous 11 months. Portugal's 10-year yield has risen 180 bp this month and 190 bp over…

More cautious optimism?

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…

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