sovereign debt crisis

The vagaries of Europe's debt crisis continues to be the most important driver of the short-term price action in the foreign exchange market. Indications that Greek New Democracy leader Samaras would sign a letter of commitment to the aid…

This post discusses how politics and economics will interact in the Greek debt crisis and lead to default and euro zone exit.

Despite the Greek parliament's approval of austerity measures, there is still considerable uncertainty in the Greek situation. This post outlines many of the issues still up in the air.

We stress again that the loss of AAA is not the end of the world, and one could make the case that AA is indeed the new AAA. However, the Moody’s news comes a time when markets are nervous about Greece, and so some limited fallout to the…

Polls suggest that in the first round of balloting in late April, Sarkozy is trailing his Socialist challenger Hollande 31%-24.5%. Marina Le Pen's candidacy appears sufficiently strong to deny either candidate a majority in the first round.

This post is a continuation of the ideas for a Greek exit for the euro zone that I published on Friday incorporating specifics that Marshall Auerback has laid out in a separate post and demonstrating why exit is the likely option.

The austerity regime being adopted throughout Europe, by surplus and deficit countries alike, amid deleveraging, begs the question of where will aggregate demand come from? Moreover, iIf Greece can lower its debt burden by transferring some…

Here's how I see it happening, based on my Italian default post.

Last April I said that unless we see a multi-year recovery economy in which the nagging debt and default issues are entirely removed, economic nationalism will return with a vengeance. And that means political conflict in which the…

This is the reaction to the latest austerity measures proposed for Greece.