sovereign debt crisis

I am increasingly worried about what is happening in Spain. It seems that the crisis there is hitting a flashpoint with no obvious means of turning things around. Over the past few days, I have been reading and listening to Spanish media…

Below is the video clip from 60 Minuted giving the average viewer a better sense of what is going on in Europe right now. The video is timely given the problems Spain and Italy are having with their government debt levels rising. Spain is…

Spain has really hit the wall now. Given what we know of how the sovereign debt crisis has proceeded. The likelihood that Spain can escape from the rise in yields without ECB or EU-wide intervention is slim.

The LTRO's provided more than 1 trillion euros of liquidity. An under-appreciated aspect of the virtuous cycle, was the bank balance sheets improved not just because of cheaper cost of capital, but because there was a significant rally in…

The German 2-year note has dropped below Japan's for the first time ever, with the German 2-year note yielding 0.109%, a record low. Japan's 2-year note yield is 0.111%. Meanwhile, the 10-year bund is at 1.638%, nearing the record low of…

This week's weekly commentary on markets and the economy features Spain. In my view, the potential for downside economic and portfolio risk has increased markedly as we realise that Spain is at risk and there is no plan B in the euro zone.…

Whatever one thinks about Lord Wolfson’s euro-skeptical meddling, it certainly has been entertaining. The British baron’s offer of a £250,000 prize for the best ideas to deal with a possible breakup of the eurozone has brought all sorts of…

I like Jonathan Tepper's commentary about currency unions over the past century. His analysis says that the breakups have been feasible. The real problem in Europe's case is overindebtedness meaning that the potential exiting euro zone…

The more Spanish officials talk about the budget the less credible it seems. The 10-year yield fell 11 bp on Friday when the budget first presented before the weekend. Now as more detail emerge as it goes to parliament, 10-year yields are…

Banks, households and the government sector are all engaged in deleveraging. It is difficult to see where aggregate demand will come from. Spanish exports in January were up about 4% from a year ago, but the pace appears to be leveling off.…