risk

Editor’s note: the IMF musings would be difficult politically, especially in the US. And any deal for Italy would also have to involve Spain too. However, Perhaps most important, operationally, the ECB lending to the IMF, which then lends…

I think Monti and Papademos are going to try to shoehorn the standard policy responses into the situation in order to reduce the range of outcomes they have to deal with. In a practical sense, that means going with the standard formula of…

About a year ago I told you there would be less policy advocacy and more policy forecasting at Credit Writedowns. This is an update.

Andrew Haldane, in my opinion, generally has the right idea about banks and their risks, which are risks not just “to themselves” but to all of society and the global economy. Yet here Haldane’s endorsing the sort of sleight of hand that…

Politicians, Treasury Secretaries, etc. would have you believe that “moral hazard” is something we should only worry about in the abstract, in the future, when they’ve moved on to another job. But now a study confirms with hard facts: moral…

I have Daniel Kahnemann’s book Thinking Fast and Slow, but have yet to read it. Judging from the positive reviews and his past work, it sounds like it should be pretty good. Kahnemann was on CNBC last week discussing some themes from his…

Risk appetites returned in a big way in October, as equities, emerging markets, commodities and currencies all generally advanced and smartly so, recouping much of the ground lost in September. The events in the week ahead will likely set…

Risk sentiment remains under pressure overnight; global equities lower, dollar mostly higher. European economic data continue to deteriorate; UK September inflation surges to new highs. RBA minutes point to some capacity to lower policy…

If you recall Global Macro Monitor’s post on Europe's Bank Problem last week, the IMF chart showed very well how banks were struggling to wean themselves from short-term funding sources and increase tangible common equity. The Belgians had…

We’ve posted many times on this blog about how the Hang Seng Index is one of our indicators species for global risk appetite. The index usually leads global markets on the downside and turns up before most.