retail

The data released this morning by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on personal income somehow managed to show weakness in income and consumption as well as savings.  I see this as proof that Americans are…

This is a cross-post from an article I wrote at the finance site New Deal 2.0, a one-stop-shop for current news, sharp analysis and potential solutions of the country’s fiscal crisis. Edward linked to this in this morning's links, saying "I…

Last year at this time I posted “The Economy’s Four Horsemen,” which described macro cause and effect leading into and out of recessions.  When looking at income, spending, output and employment, it is income which is the steer…

You have probably heard a lot of chatter from the media about a newfound thrift amongst American consumers. The general take is that Americans, faced with lost incomes and wealth and burdened by record levels of debt, have moved away…

I found the recent consumer credit data unsatisfying because the data seemed to point in two directions. The seasonally-adjusted data showed a large $12 billion decrease in consumer credit which received headlines. Meanwhile, the…

But, everywhere I look, everybody is saying it is. I would like to be true to the data and not just take the government’s seasonally-adjusted numbers at face value. Judge for yourself. Here’s the data: This is what everyone is focused on…

The Federal Reserve has just released the most recent data on consumer credit. The data show outstanding consumer credit falling to $2.47 trillion in August from a December 2008 peak of $2.59 trillion – on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA)…

The Absolute Return Letter, October 2009 A Country for Old Men and a Bit of Samba The Man Card “Excuse me Sir, can I see your Man Card?” The stone-faced look of the security guard at Dallas Fort Worth Airport gave nothing away and,…

Bill Gross has a piece out now on Pimco’s website suggesting we are about to witness a sea change in saving and spending habits, government intervention, and a host of other issues. This is not a buy-the-dips kind of atmosphere and it will…

According to the results of a study by the Spanish savings bank Caixa Catalunya, consumption will fall 4.1% this year, making the reaction to this downturn four times as severe as during the last big downturn in 1993.  Back then…