reserves

The central bank intervened aggressively in September-October to limit TRY weakness, but it does not have a huge war chest like Brazil or Asia. Reserves were $84.4 bln at the end of October, down 10% from a peak of $93 bln in July. Reserves…

The weak November HSBC PMI for China has added to market bearishness. This is not the official PMI but we do note that while the HSBC measure has been below 50 for 4 of the 5 past months, the official PMI has yet to fall below 50, but it…

The US can run budget deficits that help to fuel current account deficits without worry about government or national insolvency precisely because the rest of the world wants Dollars. But surely that cannot be true of any other nation.…

Sixty percent of the rich Chinese people have said they intended to migrate from China in a recent poll. What would that mean for FX reserves, interest rates and the economy?

Last week we showed that government deficits lead to an equivalent amount of nongovernment savings. The nongovernment savings created will be held in claims on government. Normally, the nongovernment sector prefers to hold that much of that…

According to China Daily, China owns $1.13 trillion of US debt. China has $3.20 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

Markets have been punishing countries with the weakest fundamentals, focusing on either high inflation, large current account and budget deficits, external debt loads, or a combination of these. These other vulnerability measures in the…

Just where are all those borrowers who are willing and able to borrow the $2 trillion or $20 trillion that hyperventilators believe banks want to lend? The US private sector (firms and households) have instead ramped up their net…

The Chinese foreign reserve accumulation is really about the exchange rate peg. As long as the Yuan's dollar peg remains near present levels, the current account imbalance will result in an accumulation of dollar reserves. Former Morgan…

If the Chinese are serious about their anti-US rhetoric, they will have to do a lot more on the currency front. First and foremost, they need to move more aggressively to a basket peg that allows bilateral Yuan currency rates to move as the…