recovery

This is the latest in a series of forecast posts. Notably, there has been Richard Bernstein, Saxo Bank and Byron Wien. The Pragmatic Capitalist has The Ultimate Guide to 2010 Investment Predictions and Outlooks, if you are interested in…

Initial jobless claims of 432,000 for the week ended 26 Dec 2009 were the lowest since July 2008. The 4-week average is now 460,250, the lowest since September 2008. If you look at the following two graphs, you can see that initial claims…

Holiday people, as we head into the new year, I’d like to get the pulse of Credit Writedowns readers on the state of the economy. Last night, I started a poll asking how long the recovery will last. I am not sure whether the poll…

Arnold Kling makes an important contribution to the debate about fiscal stimulus and double dip recessions which was also pointed out to me in the comments of my recent double dip post: Paul Krugman provides an analysis showing…

Remember when I said the following: GDP as reported From my view point point, the interesting bit about GDP is NOT inflation (i.e. real vs. nominal GDP), but rather the fact that the number which is reported is a first…

This comes via the FT: Latvia’s prime minister has warned Swedish banks they risk choking off recovery in the Baltic state’s crisis-hit economy unless they resume lending. Banks such as Swedbank and SEB, which dominate the Latvian…

John Mauldin’s latest is about deleveraging and how this secular trend will drive the macro picture in 2010. The question is why? Read and find out. Also see A conversation with Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio for another good commentary…

John Hussman’s latest weekly contribution contends that the market is now extremely overvalued, to the point where long-term returns will likely be low. As of last week, the S&P 500 nearly matched the richest valuations, on…

Below is the latest from John Mauldin via his weekly newsletter. John expects a double dip recession as I do. Here he talks about what I call structurally high private sector unemployment i.e. unemployment in the private sector that cannot…

This comes from the Blog News from 1930 which tells us what happened on this day in 1930 according to the Wall Street Journal: Pres. Hoover criticizes wide variety of extensive relief measures introduced in Congress as “playing politics…