recession

According to the results of a study by the Spanish savings bank Caixa Catalunya, consumption will fall 4.1% this year, making the reaction to this downturn four times as severe as during the last big downturn in 1993.  Back then…

This entry from Gary Shilling comes via John Mauldin’s site InvestorInsight.com where he highlights commentary from some of the best economic thinkers. Shilling, who correctly predicted problems in residential real estate in the US, is in…

If you recall, at the end of May, I wrote a post “Both initial claims and continuing claims now pointing to recovery” that said jobless claims data were pointing to an imminent recovery.  The general gist of my argument was recovery…

Both Latvia’s and Estonia’s debt ratings were downgraded by Standard and Poors.  Estonia was cut from A to A-, while Latvia was cut to BB+ to BB - its considered high yield securities aka junk bonds. This should come as no surprise as…

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery.  I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a good piece on Iceland out today at the Telegraph. The main point of his article is that Iceland is emerging from crisis and depression in a relatively healthy state due to a fifty percent currency…

Citigroup has just released a forecast which is very troublingregarding employment and growth in the Spanish economy.  With unemployment already having hit 17.9%, Citigroup expects layoffs to increase this to 22% in 2010.  Below…

This post is going to be a bit wonkish.  I apologize for those of you who are not economics geeks.  Hopefully, you will find it interesting nonetheless. At the urging of my good friend Marshall Auerback, I have been looking into…

For quite some time now I have been of the view that there are a number of striking similarities between the goings on in Ireland and those in California, none of them good.  Both locations have seen extraordinary rises in home prices turn…

In talking to the FT’s Gillian Tett, Hugh Hendry of The Eclectica Fund makes the hilarious metaphor of China as Santa Claus bringing gifts to a world constrained by excessive Western government debt issuance.  But, Hendry thinks the…