Politics

This post was first published on Patreon on 20 Jun 2018 Last July, I was in Germany for a high school graduation. And as the only American family member in attendance, I got a lot of questions about Donald Trump. What I said then was that…

In the midterms, the Democrats, on the other hand, are hoping to generate a lot of enthusiasm by being against Trump. But I am not at all convinced this will turn out negatively for Trump and the Republicans.

At some point, the ECB will likely be called into action. And they will give Italy an ultimatum on the fiscal front, just as they did with Greece.

As a member of the euro area, Italy has no monetary sovereignty. The only thing keeping its debt yields low is the implicit backstop of the ECB. But because of the political turmoil, this backstop is now in question. And Italy could default…

Policy divergence is the driver of market vulnerabilities. The longer the US stands alone in tightening policy, the greater the stress on the financial system.

Could public indignation at the Facebook profile harvesting scandal lead to new regulation that could impede the value of some tech-based advertising models? Will it lead to a consumer backlash that slows the growth of the companies…

The next phase in Italian politics has not been much of a market factor. Expect this phase to endure as the formation of a government should take a long time.

Two European elections – in Germany on 24 September 2017 and Italy on 4 March 2018 – warn that the peoples of Europe are drifting apart. Much of the recent deepening of these divisions can be traced to Europe’s single currency, the euro.…

As Trade War Heats Up, Biggest Currency Whales Make Their Move - Great article. Central banks are starting to diversify away from the US dollar. Many Wall Street strategists now see the euro as a viable alternative. My view: this shift…

The Fed will play a key role in 2018 if the US economy slows. But the real unknown is geopolitical, much of it driven by Donald Trump. As Trump's poll numbers have remained low, as the stock market has begun to falter and Republican…