Politics

Two months ago, we got four scenarios for the fiscal cliff via Credit Suisse and Sober Look. All of these scenarios called for at least a 0.9% drag on the economy, meaning that we should fully expect at least a 0.9% drop in annualized GDP…

By Marc Chandler The US dollar and Japanese yen are starting the week on a firm note, despite their respective markets closed for holidays. The gains are concentrated against the major European currencies, with the dollar-itself little…

There were a lot of media reactions to the Wednesday night US Presidential debate to sift through. The general consensus seems to be that Mitt Romney 'won' the debate and that this win makes the Presidential race closer. I think that's…

Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer were on “Bloomberg Surveillance” this morning talking about the economy and the upcoming election in the U.S. A partial transcript and video are below.  The headline story is that Nouriel believes that too…

A quick post here. Sober Look has posted on Citigroup's economic surprise index, noting that it has started to roll over again, ever so slightly. But the trend is clear for the past two to three months and it has been sharply higher,…

Two weeks ago I told you that Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s humiliating defeat to Merkel had narrowed options to sovereign bailout, monetisation or default for Spain. Now that the Spanish bank bailout is unraveling and Catalonia is…

This is a brief follow-on to the last post on whether we should be optimistic, in particular now that the US housing market is improving. If you think about it, the problem now is that all debtors - public and private - are taking the…

Here is today's daily note. I have three main topics to highlight in the links: Romney, Apple and QE infinity.   Romney The Pawlenty defection is a big deal. I don't think I have ever seen anything like it. It's a total meltdown for…

I have a backlog of links I could put into this post but I am going to get this out now to concentrate on one issue: the US presidential election and Mitt Romney's meltdown. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that Romney would win…

The following press release was issued by Moody's Investors Service earlier today regarding the United States. New York, September 11, 2012 -- Budget negotiations during the 2013 Congressional legislative session will likely determine the…