Politics

Although the euro is now headed up after it overshot to the downside, I believe the European recovery has legs and will continue indefinitely as long as a calamity in Greece doesn’t pull Europe down.

In what can only be seen an unexpected Chinese success, several US allies have agreed to participate in China and India's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The frustration with the US on this issue is palpable. There is another issue…

I support what Yanis Varoufakis is trying to do in Greece. I see him as someone who is trying to change the debate in Europe from a narrow one about fiscal rectitude that brings out all sorts of nationalistic prejudices to a wider debate…

Recently I told a few friends how frustrating the events unfolding in Greece are. It’s clear to most that the delays to a full restructuring in Greece reduces the net present value available to creditors. Yet, for political reasons, delay…

When the Greek bailout extension deal got done, I mentioned that in the press conference that followed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble made it clear he was looking to ‘sell’ the deal to the German parliament. And while he has…

It is hard to watch the Greek drama unfold without a sense of foreboding. If it is possible for the Greek economy partially to revive in spite of its tremendous debt burden, with a lot of hard work and even more good luck we can posit…

Yesterday, I ended my analysis writing that, “there is enough flexibility in this deal that both sides can declare victory”, and that “from a market perspective, I expect risk-on mood to re-assert itself now. And with the tailwind of lower…

Yesterday, Greece received an agreement in principal to extend its existing bailout program for another four months from the institutions administering that program. I believe this deal is a good basis for further work down the line. But…

One of the great things about markets and economics is that there is a lot of uncertainty built into them because, unlike traditional macroeconomic modelling assumptions, real people are unpredictable and irrational. This makes life…

Last night the European Central Bank announced that it would no longer accept Greek government or Greek government-guaranteed collateral for loans. This step had been telegraphed for a month but the timing demonstrates how political an…