Politics

Donald Trump's election as President of the United States last night was a surprising and historic event. I think a lot of people are surprised given UK bookmakers had him at 150 to one odds. I would say the shock politically ranks higher…

This is going to be a quick post to update you on where I think things are headed now that we have the two final candidates for UK Prime Minister. My overall view continues to be that the base case is for a moderate negative economic,…

At this juncture, the leading candidates for British Prime Minister are both women on either side of the referendum vote. However, both are saying they will guide the UK out of the European Union. Meanwhile Chancellor George Osborne’s…

This is a quick run through of the post-Brexit vote decision tree. The opportunities and constraints after the UK vote to leave the EU are now coming into view. It is clear that the UK is likely to leave the EU given not only statements by…

In the United States, the Republican Party is baffled by how their electorate has favoured Donald Trump for nomination for President in 2016. Equally, the Democrats are scurrying to quell the massive inflow of votes to Bernie Sanders, whose…

Yesterday, China announced one of the most important tax reforms of the past twenty years. It is replacing a business tax on gross revenue for non-manufacturing companies with a VAT. Manufacturing companies have been subject to a VAT…

Portugal’s election on 4 October was inconclusive, without any party winning an absolute majority of the votes. The President of the country, a former Prime Minister, allowed his own party, led by incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos…

John Boehner is not conservative enough. At least that's what the firebrand Republicans in the US House of Representatives believe. And so he has resigned from his position as Speaker of the House and will resign Congress altogether as…

Now that I am writing for free again, let me give you a quick update on what I'm thinking about. I still think the removal of China as a marginal buyer of last resort is the macro event that dominates all others. But there are a few…

Success of the German-inspired solution for the latest Greek crisis is far from assured. If it fails, the Eurozone may be changed forever. This column argues that the failure would lead to an outcome that has been favoured for decades by…