oil

Here is something brewing off radar. We’re wondering if this is a factor as to why crude is bid and gold is coming back?

This chart by John Kemp of Reuters tells you that speculation played a huge role in the run up in oil prices earlier this year, hugely amplifying the underlying fundamental trend. Hat tip to the FT’s Izabella Kaminska. She is right to say…

The following note from Gulf News reinforces the concept that high population growth in the Middle East will slow the amount of oil available for export. I believe the consequences are higher prices.

This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to…

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need…

The Dow Transportation Index was down almost 4 percent today and if there is any silver lining in the current market turmoil is that Trannies usually lead crude down, which will drop gas prices. The chart below shows the 12.2 percent swan…

Here’s an interesting note from UBS’ Andy Lees on the background story to the oil market. You may have heard that US President Obama decided to release some of the oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This move was bearish for…

Niels Jensen clears up a number of common misconceptions about the macroo environment which whave great importance for investing.

The relationship between oil and currencies is no more stable that the relationship between the S&P 500 and currencies. As we noted yesterday in our look at the correlation between a handful of currencies and the S&P 500, it is not…

A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China.