multiple expansion

Going forward, equity markets are likely to have a much bigger impact on the economy than has been the case in the past. This is a simple conclusion derived from the fact that total equity market value today is 1.2x GDP. 35 years ago, when…

Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets…

As I was preparing to write my annual "Outlook and Forecast" for 2014, I read many different views from major Wall Street firms to get a general feel of the consensus. However, during the course of my research I read one piece of work in…

It was interesting to see the US markets follow through yesterday to the upside after a monster rally in shares when the Fed tapered large scale asset purchases on Wednesday. But rather than seeing strength in this, I see vulnerability…

Markets have failed to correct 15 or even 10% for a record period of time during this cyclical bull market. Given the stretched valuations, this makes the market vulnerable to a pullback. What are the types of events which could precipitate…

Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares.…

Now that Europe is on the mend, the initial phase of the financial crisis is clearly in the rearview mirror. Equity prices, bonds prices and house prices have risen by leaps and bounds even before this economic recovery was clear. Yet, the…

Regardless of the metric that you use, deviations from the long term growth trend are unstainable and will eventually mean revert.

The P/E ratio is a statistic that, while all-encompassing, can be misleading in determining under- and overvaluation. Nonetheless regarding valuation it can be a useful guide in context.

My caution on U.S. markets is based not just on technical factors coming from the crisis in emerging markets and the longstanging lack of a market correction. I am also concerned that interest rates have started to rise against a backdrop…