monetary policy

It is not clear that there is a political consensus for a stand-alone tax holiday. There may be support for the stand-alone tax holiday as part of a larger corporate tax reform effort. If it is enacted, job growth and capital investment is…

Fear mongers want you to be scared to death that interest rates will skyrocket. As I have said many times in the past, long Treasury rates reflect inflation and interest rate expectations. Full stop. The default risk isn’t there since…

Investors should consider monitoring the euro's risk reversals to compliment the analysis of spot. The current reading suggests the market less comfortable with long euro exposure than the relative resilience in the spot market would seem…

The Fed is stuck at permanent zero and that means the carry trade is on. If we did have another panic, those swap lines would be handy because the Fed would again become the global lender of last resort.

Dollar is little changed ahead of today’s ECB meeting and ADP report; stocks/commodities are steady. BoE holds steady, ECB is expected to deliver a 25bps rate hike; market focus likely to be on comments. Brazilian policy makers focus on…

Over the rest of this year, PBOC will continue to use a combination of policy rate hikes, reserve requirement hikes, and currency strength to help limit inflation pressures. How much more can we expect, and where do we stand in the process?…

For ideological reasons, one might believe that limiting or reducing government is better. However, it does not follow that doing so is a painless exercise.

This blurb from Paul Krugman and Robin Wells' review of Jeff Madrick's book on the credit crisis sums up why the busts keep getting bigger

India is still an emerging economy, one which has made great strides forward in recent years. And despite many difficulties India has remained a democracy since independence. It is a country where human rights are by and large respected,…

Comstock Partners writes that a QE3 program is not completely off the table. It just appears at this point that the bar for doing it is so high that a prerequisite would be a collapse in the economy and a declining stock market. That would…