monetary policy

As Merrill's junk bond index yield crossed the historical low of 5% on Thursday, some senior Fed officials are clearly becoming uneasy. Corporate credit markets are entering bubble territory (see discussion) and up until recently very…

When I see the chart for Euro zone NPLs and look at the numbers, I think debt deflation. And this is exactly the problem with the euro zone's policy mix.

Now, you may well deduct from all of this that I am as bearish as I have ever been, but nothing could be further from the truth. The issues I have discussed in this month’s letter are clouds on the horizon which are likely to take years to…

I will make this brief as I believe the links will do the talking for me. As I said yesterday, none of the economic data coming out of the US outside of housing seems to be surprising to the upside. That said, there is one bright spot here;…

Japan is stuck in a shrinking population trap, and neither monetary nor fiscal policy will adequately solve the problem. Continuing to run fiscal deficits in a deflationary environment will only means that government debt is pushed onward…

I just finished watching the ECB's monetary policy committee press conference led by Mario Draghi. And the ECB has just announced a series of actions I believe constitute a new economic paradigm for the euro area, one that moves away from…

ECB President Draghi confirmed the decisions made today to cut the main refi rate by 25 bp to 50 bp and cut the lending rate, the ceiling of its rate corridor, by 50 bp. Most importantly he seemed more open to a cut in the deposit rate and…

This is a second daily commentary today to give some weight to what's happening in the US after a slew of European-themed posts. I have three or four topics to cover here and I want to begin with the US economy including some thoughts on…

Whatever the case, the ECB will have to act in order to avoid the dangers of a deflationary spiral, which could take the Eurozone years (or even decades) to exit.

In his daily commentary today, Andy Lees of the Macro Strategy Partnership noted that, "the US macro surprise index is now -7.90, the European index is -69.20 and the G10 index at -32.8." What he is saying is that the data are weakening and…