monetary policy

Yesterday’s market meltdown - and today's reaction - reduces the risk that the Fed will over-tighten, taking froth out of an over-extended market.

Reuters has done a state-by-state analysis of wage data in the US, showing average pay rising over 3% in more than half of US states. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Powell mentioned financial stability as a concern as he was sworn in today. With markets taking a dive, it’s not clear what that will mean in terms of policy.

We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.

Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year

Everyone is bond bearish these days. Alan Greenspan is because he expects inflation. But this will mean tightening that risks derailing the US economy in 2019 and beyond.

The state of the nation is as good as it is going to get during this business cycle — at least from an economic perspective. On that, we should be a lot more interested in what Janet Yellen has to say in her last FOMC press conference.

What will stop the dollar's sell-off is not officials.  It is not the likelihood of a Fed hike.  Rather the market will exhaust itself. 

Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio warned that a rise in bond yields could lead to the biggest crisis in fixed income markets in almost 40 years.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says we are late in the economic cycle and should expect good things from asset markets. But central banks will have a tricky time dealing with the consequences.