military

Somewhere in the Credit Writedowns archive are comments regarding US President Trump to the effect that political economy shocks won't matter. So I want to share a quick anecdote with you on why I have never put too much stock in the…

Markets are imploding, every organization that US President Donald Trump has led is under investigation, his poll ratings are sagging, and Trump's legislative agenda is set to go nowhere under a divided Congress. Frankly, it looks very…

The Trump Administration has launched an investigation into auto imports on national security grounds. But trade in uranium may be closest to what reasonable people might think as a national security issue.

The upward momentum for US stocks has broken. The S&P 500 closed below it's 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2016. Chief among the factors causing alarm was China's decision to retaliate against US tariffs. More…

Donald Trump tweeted that he has appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor. Bolton is a neo-conservative thinker with hawkish views on North Korea and Iran. His appointment is a sign that "Trump Unchained"is a change toward a more…

I’ve looked at Ian Bremmer's list of potential geopolitical crisis triggers and the one that stands out for me is North Korea. And so I want to use the bombing of Kosovo as a historical precedent to explain what could be driving US…

Since Donald Trump became president, his core economic agenda has been sidetracked repeatedly by so-called cultural issues. However, now the administration is stepping up its tax reform effort. Even so, other issues threaten to derail this…

A few weeks ago I was writing about a likely pivot away from China toward Russia in the Trump administration. And my conclusion was that a violent pivot created a lot of unknown unknowns - to use a Rumsfeld phrase. It is the uncertainty and…

The bottom line here is that I have been and still am bullish on the cyclical prospects in the US, UK and Spain in particular. The US jobless claims numbers are unusually low and that tells you that slack in the labour market is declining.…

This is a long-form post on Ukraine. The big news, however, is from the European Union where the PMIs and a slew of other economic data came out today. The data showed the European economy improving broadly from its weakened recovery…