investing

For managers of money, the post-crisis low growth world has had major implications for asset allocation strategies. Assumptions about returns are greatly affected by the both monetary easing used to counteract the slowing and the yield…

Stocks have mostly recovered since Brexit and the strong dollar and Yen have reversed much of their overvaluation in recent days. The question remains as to what the fallout from the UK’s departure from the EU will be. I continue to believe…

Today's post is going to be a bit of a hodge podge because I didn't have a single theme to report on as I started out. If I had to give this post a title, the overarching theme would be "signals of slowing". What I am seeing is nothing to…

Mean Reversion of Wealth is one of the six structural mega-trends that we have identified. As is pretty obvious when looking at chart 2, wealth creation during the great bull market of 1981-2000 was quite extraordinary and, in our opinion,…

The equity markets that have fallen the least so far are the U.S. and the Japanese markets. If my prediction that we are looking into a more difficult period in the U.S. (and the euro zone), U.S. equities look particularly vulnerable, so…

Yesterday I retweeted an interesting tweet by Business Insider’s Henry Blodget which references an article on data compiled by Barclays on profit mean reversion and recession. The gist of the article is that a profits recession generally…

John Boehner is not conservative enough. At least that's what the firebrand Republicans in the US House of Representatives believe. And so he has resigned from his position as Speaker of the House and will resign Congress altogether as…

After hard selling into Friday’s close in the U.S. and a global selloff in stocks today, it is clear that the Chinese mini-devaluation has begun a crisis, despite the Yuan appreciating for a seventh day. The mini-devaluation is merely a…

By Michael Pettis originally written on 31 Jul 2015 I plan to post a new entry very soon but before doing so I wanted to say a few things about the stock markets, which continue to be insane (but not unexpectedly so) and then repost a…

Yesterday I mentioned markers of economic and financial weakness that I believe show cracks in the facade of benign economic data out of the US and Europe. Today I want to briefly go through a few of these data points and highlight what…