investing

Volatility tends to drop when market risk is building up and leverage is rising, luring investors into complacency. Indeed, the lower volatility justifies investors taking on more leverage; if volatility has dropped by a third, why not take…

Opinion polls and surveys are finding an increasing number of people expect one or more countries to leave the euro zone. Investors are anxious. What is to be done? What makes this so difficult is that there are so many moving parts and…

We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession.…

Looked like today could be the day the S&P500 broke through and closed above its 200-day. That is, before the tape bomb out of the S&P putting most of the ‘Zone countries on negative watch for a credit downgrade. Let’s see how this…

If I told you that the composition of an average UK equity fund changes by 90% a year, would that startle you? How would you feel if I added that the 20 funds with the highest turnover returned just 4.7% to investors in the 3 years to the…

Italy's government has come forward with an aggressive 30 billion euro austerity package to prevent the country's bankrupcty and pave the way for the fiscal integration that Angela Merkel is pushing as the key to solving the European debt…

Bottom line: the numbers are decent but they beat expectations. Markets are in a bullish end of year tape painting frame of mind, so stocks will rally. Daddy needs a bonus so Santa is indeed coming to town. The Santa Claus rally is on.

The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close…

It looks like Santa Claus is coming to town. Maybe we get a little consolidation over the next few days and then the next test for the S&P is 1257, the breakeven for the year, 1265.89, the 200-day moving average, and then the October 27…

Britain’s economy is a shambles as the negative impact of austerity has been made plain. Now, mind you, it was already clear from a leaked Greek bailout document that expansionary fiscal consolidation has failed in Greece. But now the…