interest rates

The Bank of England, which has a penchant for surprising the market, chose not to wait for the quarterly inflation report to provide cover, and announce GBP75 bln additional bond purchases over the next four months. We forecast sterling to…

This week we will begin to examine our next topic: government spending, taxing, interest rate setting, and bond issue. We will examine fiscal and monetary policy formation by a government that issues its own currency. We will bear in mind…

ECB member Mersh called the speculation over a 50 bp cut "wild", according to news accounts. However, given the dismal flash PMI readings and its correlation with GDP, the market is aware that the ECB can indeed cut rates next week, even…

Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn't this go round in the US.

On how the expectations theory of interest rates explains why debt-induced depressions are fundamentally deflationary in nature.

BRL is one of the worst EM performers today, and continues a string of underperformance (-10.8% vs. USD) that began with the unexpected 50 bp rate cut August 31. Since then, only HUF has done worse at -11.5%. It’s really a confluence of…

There is a road open for China involving controlled inflation that would lead to re-balancing, both domestically and internationally, which has some uncertainties. These must be compared to those of sustaining the export-led growth model,…

In the EMEA space, central banks from Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, and Turkey all meet next week. We don’t see any change from these four central banks and in general we believe EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see…

If real returns remain low, it will skew capital investment. When recession hits, debtors backing those losing investments will be caught out and forced to delever aggressively as resource misallocation becomes evident.

My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a…