inflation

The weak November HSBC PMI for China has added to market bearishness. This is not the official PMI but we do note that while the HSBC measure has been below 50 for 4 of the 5 past months, the official PMI has yet to fall below 50, but it…

Predicting the future of policy making has been and will continue to be key to understanding where this economy is headed – and by extension what your investment portfolio will do.

Central banks have done a great job at driving up the price of gold but a horrible job at creating wage inflation. If it now takes 88 hours to buy an ounce of gold versus 20 hours in 2000, hasn’t that grossly deflated real wages in a…

It is beginning to look like a Greek exit is ever more likely, which means that the end of the EMU could be near. Even if exits and a break-up are not inevitable, countries should have a plan on the shelf. It is clear that Germany is…

Economic data has been of tertiary concern to the market recently, overwhelmed by the drama in Europe. Given that the drama may die down, with new governments in Greece and Italy, the economic data may become somewhat more important.

For all practical purposes the Fed has done it all. And yet unemployment remains at depression levels of over 9% (and over 16% the way it used to be calculated not long ago) and the only thing keeping what’s called ‘inflation’ over 1% is a…

Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear…

Risk sentiment remains under pressure overnight; global equities lower, dollar mostly higher. European economic data continue to deteriorate; UK September inflation surges to new highs. RBA minutes point to some capacity to lower policy…

In a February 2010 Casey Report article titled Is China’s Recovery a Fraud?, my thesis was the $2.1 trillion stimulus package rolled out by Chinese authorities after the 2008/2009 financial crash was leading to enormous malinvestment. As…

How does manufacturing CPI inflation benefit an economy in which incomes are falling? When inflation rises and incomes are stagnant or falling, the economy rolls over.