inflation expectations

Three years on, I remain absolutely convinced that deflation, driven primarily by consumers eager to repair their balance sheets, will be a powerful force for many years to come but, at the same time, I must admit that I see worrying signs…

Two years ago, I noted that the steep yield curve produced by the Fed's policy accommodation would give way to a flatter and more treacherous yield curve environment as a weak recovery continued. The Fed would see the weak recovery as a…

I participated in a Euromoney conference on investing in inflation this afternoon. I was on a panel of five right before the closing remarks by keynote speaker Dennis Gartman and I wanted to make a few remarks about what I learned. First,…

A few hours ago I wrote a rather downbeat post on the prospects for the US economy that continued the thoughts from an article I wrote in the New York Times. A number of other sources have confirmed some of the logic behind that post since…

The big news in the US today was the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee's decision to extend its simultaneous purchase of longer-dated Treasuries and sale of shorter-dated ones. This effort, dubbed Operation Twist, was set to expire at…

I spoke to Paul Waldie and Brian Milner of the Globe & Mail on BNN's headline on Monday. The big story was JPMorgan Chase and the London Whale trades. JPMorgan Chase's CEO Jamie Dimon, as the leading lobbyists for the hands-off…

The GDP numbers for the US came out again and they were weaker than anticipated, coming in at 2.2% for real GDP growth instead of the 2.5% expected. Nominal GDP growth was only 3.7%. That is not bullish for shares.

Last August, the Fed went for what I call "rate easing". If the economy weakens this year what will it do? I am not convinced it will be quantitative easing. In general, I think the Fed, while looking to support the growth side of its dual…

Central banks' ability to surprise the market remains even in these trying times. It was the Bank of Japan's turn today. It surprised the market in two ways. First, it expanded its asset purchase plan by JPY10 trillion ($128 bln).…

Each member will be asked to give a number for what they think the interest rate will be at the end of this year, the end of next few years and also in the long run. Won’t it be confusing to have 12 different predictions for this?