It is almost game over for the euro zone
I wrote an article for Room for Debate at the New York Times on the potential for a Greek collapse to end the euro. Here are the parts I would highlight.
Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Browsing Tag
Greece
The date when it was first obvious that Greece would default: a timeline of the Greek debt crisis
I was going through my archives to figure out when I first started saying Greece would default and it made for interesting reading as a chronology of the sovereign debt crisis. For me, the pivotal post that signalled default was inevitable…
On the CDS market, the Greek referendum and US banks’ selling insurance
There is much truth to the generalization that European banks took on direct exposure to European sovereigns through the bond market, while top banks took exposure through selling insurance, primarily CDS, on the sovereigns. The latest BIS…
Contagion: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Wideners – Guess Who?
This chart from Credit Market Analysis shows the sovereign bonds which had the greatest percentage increase in their default probability over a 5-year horizon.
This is what Italy’s bond yields look like after Greek referendum contagion
Bonds in Italy are marching higher amid rumours of ECB intervention. Yesterday they breached 6.15%. Now they are above 6.30% and going higher still. Belgium and Spain have also been infected with Greek referendum contagion.
The Greek Tragedy Resurfaces
Greece’s decision to hold a referendum weighing on sentiment; global PMIs most softer thus far. EUR/USD has retracted half of its Oct. move in two days; Greek referendum increases disorderly default risk. US ISM manufacturing key report of…
Greek referendum could mean CDS Greek default trigger
Given Greek sentiment, in all likelihood, a referendum vote for the bailout agreement will fail. The question is “what then?” I would anticipate that, at a minimum, an an actual default which triggers credit default swaps with higher…
Video: The Euro Bailout Explained
For those of you wondering what's just happened in Europe, here is an animated explanation.
Greek credit default swap shenanigans
The big question–apart from how many investors they will get to go along with this, given that they couldn’t reach their target of 90% investor participation when the write-down was only going to be 21%–is whether this will trigger a CDS…
Greece just got a debt jubilee. Who’s next?
I see this deal as a quid pro quo for the banks getting recaps in exchange for writedowns. Because it is a negotiated agreement of a sort of payment in kind, it isn't really clear if the banks are being made whole (as compared to a…