Forecasts

The number of market-based signals indicative of a slowing global economy are mounting along with weak GDP data in a number of important countries. In the face of a strong dollar and weak foreign currency translations, I believe it is…

Back in 2012, three economists published a paper via the San Francisco Fed that looked at nearly every advanced economy business cycle from 1870 forward with the object of understanding the role of credit in the business cycle. Matthew…

The gist of the piece here is that, while I see a cyclical recovery that is gathering pace, the Achilles heel of the recovery from a sustainability perspective is wage growth. To the degree the Fed normalizes policy now before wage growth…

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events…

This post is on the same topic of the US economy that I addressed yesterday. But I want to go a bit deeper and add more colour to my comments. Signs that the US economy’s cyclical outlook are improving are getting ever more numerous,…

The bottom line here is that I have been and still am bullish on the cyclical prospects in the US, UK and Spain in particular. The US jobless claims numbers are unusually low and that tells you that slack in the labour market is declining.…

As the war in Ukraine moves to the center of global consciousness, I think it is important to remember the various actors’ positioning, constraints and likely agendas. As much as we would like to know ‘the truth’, the reality is always that…

Earlier today, I had an interesting back and forth on Twitter with Edward Hugh, Claus Vistesen and Matthew Lynn about Europe and the ECB. I think we all believe there is more pain to come for Europe and likely there will be writedowns. But…

Money supply and LEI in the US are pointing down Fed hawkishness is increasing Credit excesses continue in high yield

I’m back after the long weekend here in the US with a short post. Having pointed to the excesses in US credit markets on Friday, I should point out that the real economy in the US is doing pretty well at the moment. Markets can continue to…