financial history

For the majority of us, the credit crisis we are living through has come rather unexpectedly. And because it has been both a surprise to many and a traumatic experience to yet many more, we are all trying to contextualize it using past…

China is in the midst of an asset bubble. The evidence is clear that China's aggressive fiscal and monetary policy is causing the Chinese economy to overheat, with some predicting 12% growth for the Q1 2010. According to Marshall Auerback,…

I was just reviewing some of the commentary from this January's Barron's Roundtable. I thought Felix Zulauf's take on macro trends for investors was spot on.  His comments on currencies in particular inspired this post. Zulauf sees…

UPDATE: 19 MAR 2010: Given the debate on China and its currency peg, I thought this post from November 2008 would be relevant. It called for a new world order centered around a new monetary system. This idea has gained some currency as it…

I am going to talk here a little bit about the looming trade war between China and the United States. But I am going to come at it from a side angle via some historical analogies. Common folklore in the United States says that the Soviet…

This is a post from John Lounsbury which will cover ground on the official designation of recessions and his own designation of depressions about which he has written in the past. Previous articles in this series have discussed: The…

I was talking to a friend of mine who does emerging market investing for a living and I asked him what he made of recent China-bullish comments by Stephen Roach.  The Morgan Stanley Asia head was in Germany speaking to German…

Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum - Debating Debtflation FT.com - Pandit blames Citi’s woes on short selling Marshall Auerback: A tale of two recoveries – Germany and Malaysia, Part II Stuck in neutral – what Japan’s rebalancing…

I came across an article in the FT by Gideon Rachman which examined “How Reagan ruined conservatism.” It is an interesting piece which claims that traditional conservatives abhor populism and respect knowledge, while the Reagan Revolution…

Marshall Auerback here with a post which I originally published at New Deal 2.0. What is a fiscal crisis? When does deficit spending become “unsustainable”? Today, we can see net public spending rising (sharply as a percentage of GDP in…