Europe

I never subscribed to the idea that Greece was going to be expelled from the euro zone in 2012. However, my view on Greece is more pessimistic than most. Most policy makers in Europe would have you believe the euro crisis is over. Here's…

Last October, I highlighted the issue of bailout extensions to Ireland and Portugal and so I want to re-visit this theme now that Portugal and Ireland are in the news looking to change the terms of their existing bailouts.

Unappreciated by many is the fact that the Italian economy has seen the largest contraction (7%) since the crisis began within the euro zone after Greece. Per capita income is back, according to former ECB's Bini Smaghi, to where it was in…

The financial crisis has reduced the ranks of countries with pristine macro fundamentals. Thus, the availability of safe assets has declined precipitously. Investors in a bind where they have funds to invest but a limited number of options,…

The key to Spain's turning the corner as 2013 begins is the housing market. This takes on increasing importance given the reprieve in crisis interest rates. House prices are still falling and the economy is contracting despite the…

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) believes that eurozone banks still have much work to do to strengthen their capital. They warn that many of the entities currently are still below a capital ratio of 5% of…

The IMF has told Portugal that the draconian austerity budget it has passed for 2013 will not be enough a nd has asked for more austerity. Portugal needs to make up a 4 billion euro gap and to do so the IMF wants to see cuts to government…

Last year, I started my weekly newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give you a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occuring that I believed had a fifty percent or better chance of…

The unemployment rate in the euro zone hit 11.8% in November according to the numbers released by the EU this morning. That is a record. The EU-27-wide unemployment rate was 10.7%. This contrasts very unfavourably to the unemployment levels…

The Spanish bank run caused by redenomination risk is over. And Spanish bond yields are now back to around the 5% level today. Apparently, the ECB's monetisation scheme has worked - and without Spain's having entered a Troika program yet…