Europe

Themes for today: The US faces political constraints in a cyclical downturn that will limit government response The US private surplus is under assault Europe is improving and upgrades to bank stocks are bullish The Fed tends to…

Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift…

Business lending in the Eurozone is very poor - flat in the major core countries and falling in the periphery. There is a desperate need to ease credit conditions for SMEs in periphery countries. The slight easing of interest rates on…

By Marc Chandler A discussion of what the ECB is likely to do at Thursday's policy meeting requires an appreciation of its challenges. There are four challenges that the ECB faces in nursing the "weak, fragile and uneven" recovery, as…

Unless serious action is taken, Europe in particular (but the U.S. is not far behind) is at risk of falling into a very deep hole from which it may be extraordinarily difficult to dig itself out of. Once in, it will prove ever so hard to…

The ECB continues to argue that there is no deflation risk in the Eurozone though many people dispute this. The ECB must act, and politicians in the Eurozone must allow it to do so. Treaties be damned.

The effectiveness of US sanctions against Russia are almost toothless if they are unilateral. The conditions that the IMF will likely require to put Ukraine on more sustainable fiscal footing will mean economic hardship and may do more to…

Today’s links carry a widely-diverging set of opinions about the moral issues surrounding the situation in Ukraine. But since this is a finance site, I want to discuss the economic issues. I continue to believe the Ukrainian situation will…

Themes for today Emerging market political risk is now front and center. US data suggests consumption growth is vulnerable to poor wage trends. The European periphery banks are benefitting from lower sovereign yields. The potential…

Detroit was allowed to declare bankruptcy last year. While economists often focus on the barriers to entry, by removing the stigma from bankruptcy and easing the process, it makes lowers the barriers to exit. This stands in stark contrast…