Europe

Expect the ECB to do something in June, but not QE Ukraine is the top geopolitical risk Rotation into defensive names in the US is worrying China is exporting deflation Easy money is causing a reaching for yield

I believe investors are reaching for yield and there are multiple signals indicating such. This is a direct outgrowth of easy money policies by central banks as nominal yields are at record lows and real yields are negative. Investors,…

The monthly employment situation summary for April 2014 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the headline numbers were terrific. The unemployment rate measured by the household survey fell to a cyclical low of 6.3%, below…

The Euro area composite PMI rose to 54.0 from 53.1, making it unlikely that the ECB will move against deflation in May The Chinese HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI was up to 48.3 from 48.0. However, this still shows contracting…

The big news in the markets today is the standoff in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian armed rebels and the Ukrainian military. This has European markets selling off. The potential for problems in eastern Ukraine is something we should…

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is "just a question of timing," says Lagarde and "sooner was better than later", chimed Blanchard, the chief…

This week’s theme post will be exclusively about Greece because I think the Greek bond deal is emblematic of trends we see in markets and the real economy. And of course, the big news in the past few days is Greece. Its 5-year government…

The Greek bond deal that in February I predicted would come to market was deemed a rousing success by the market. Initially Greece had planned a 2 billion euro offering for 5-year money. But there was heavy interest and Greece’s…

It is about time I updated you on how the ten surprises for 2014 are faring. I actually have 14 but I only get credit on the first ten. The second ten are a bonus round. I am defining my surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3…

There is a battle within the European Central Bank. Some want to take stronger action. Others do not think it is necessary. It is not just a matter of counting up who is on what side of the issue. It is not simply about majority rules.…