equities

In June of last year, I wrote a post called "Central banks will face a Scylla and Charybdis flation challenge for years." The crux of the piece was that we are living in a world in which debt deflation is always one downturn away,…

The US Financial Conditions Index (BFCIUS) is a composite measure of the condition of U.S. financial markets, using yield spreads, indices from bond, equity and money markets. Right now, it is at a 32-month high. But, while this is…

Marc Faber talks with Bloomberg about the outlook for US shares, saying he believes the market could correct 20% if the S&P reaches a new high (above 1150). That’s the definition of a cyclical bear market, by the way. Faber also…

With stocks now up significantly from March 2009 lows, a mild correction has been underway for the past two weeks.  Even if it risks becoming a major correction, we will still be well above levels just 6 months ago.  But that has…

I woke up this morning thinking about James Baker’s October 1987 comments on the dollar which many feel precipitated the 1987 crash. This was on my mind as I contemplated the implications of Obama’s recent regulatory announcement bombshell.…

Markets were disappointed by today’s unemployment data because they reveal how difficult it has been for the employment situation to improve in a meaningful way. The employment market is improving, just not as much as one would hope. Below…

Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis.  I posted the 2009 predictions…

Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien's 2010 surprises, which were…

I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected…