Economics

What if the Fed Model is wrong? Perhaps it's the change in the level of interest rates that matters, not the level. So irrespective of how high interest rates are, if the change, the delta, is large enough, it will produce an economic…

There is a notable lack of long-run analyses of monetary systems and their stability. This column addresses this gap by looking at the monetary systems of major European states between 1300 and 1914. The evidence collected suggests that,…

Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.

Low interest rates in the UK show how powerful expectations of future central bank policy action is on bond markets given rising inflation.

Sometimes governments choose to mimic the private sector and amplify the trend in the economy. This is called pro-cyclicality - and in worst case scenarios, it can be quite destabilizing.

Hallmarks of recession are all around about the time they happen if one looks close enough — certainly in 2008. I don’t think we are in a recession by any stretch, right now — not even close.

When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.

We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.

If bitcoin and its equivalents can deliver what its champions promise, what’s not to like? Well, the rub is what Economist Abba Lerner said “The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money".

Claims that moves by central banks in China, Japan and Europe are dominating the US Treasury market are flawed because the 'model' used to make those claims is flawed.