Economic Data

Dollar ended the week softer with AUD, JPY and SEK the strongest weekly performers in the G10. Fed introduces new level of transparency next Wednesday with regular press briefings. Euro likely to test December 2009 high, around $1.47, on…

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…

From the International Business Times and Andy Lees at UBS: Reports that central China's Hubei province has joined a growing list of regions facing coal shortages with a warning that it is very likely to start power rationing later this…

Over the last three decades the US financial sector has grown six times faster than nominal GDP. This column argues that there comes a point when the financial sector has a negative effect on growth – that is, when credit to the private…

China data came in stronger than expected, and supports the view that PBOC is moving behind the curve with its gradualist approach and that it needs to get more aggressive. Q1 11 GDP growth slowed slightly to 9.7% y/y from 9.8% y/y in Q4…

When unemployment is high, immigrants are seen as a burden and the mood shifts toward the anti-immigration rhetoric we are hearing from Mr. Cameron. Economic nationalism is a force to be reckoned with. This anti-foreigner sentiment will…

Roach talks to Bloomberg's Carol Massar about the risks to an economy operating at stall speed as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic lessons from Japan's lost decades. He thinks a recessionary relapse is more likely than…

Mexico central bank Governor Carstens is sounding very dovish, noting that the economic recovery is not leading to price pressures.  He believes there is enough slack in the economy still to keep inflation near the 3% target. …

S&P upgraded Indonesia’s rating by one notch to BB+, just one notch shy of investment grade. The move puts it on par with the other two agencies, and we think investment grade will be given by at least one of the big three agencies this…

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more…