Economic Data

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the…

The eurozone is in a recession right now. And it is the banking sector where downside risk lies. Will the US also double dip? What about China's faltering housing and stock markets?

The euro was recovering in early Europe, moving back toward the upper end of its recent narrow range and it reversed course sharply, triggering stops along the way as it dropped nearly a cent to $1.2695. The technical failure yesterday at…

Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit in a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November…

The light news stream, adequate bill auction receptions and comments from Fitch suggesting France's AAA rating is secure this year encouraged short-term players to take profits. However, sentiment is still wholly euro negative and a large…

Here is something to flag; there has been a lot of chatter amongst economic pundits about the seasonality effect on recent data. Those with a sceptical view have been saying that the upside surprise in the Friday jobs data in particular is…

The best resolution, and the one Keynes urged without success on the US in the 1920s and 1930s, is that Germany take steps to reverse its trade surplus. It could boost disposable household income and household consumption by cutting income…

In a Tokyo-less Asian session the dollar had begun the week bid, but this quickly reversed in early Europe, which saw the euro rise more than a cent off the $1.2666 low. It was largely a short-covering bounce, but as North American players…

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data…