Economic Data

I have been making a big deal about strength in the household series of employment and the trend in IUCs. These are statistical series that do not get revised out of recognition. They often tell the tale at turning points. Given that past…

Bloomberg Television has another video with PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, this time on the jobs number. This one number has the potential to set the tone for the short-term because it was so far ahead of consensus estimates. El-Erian…

The jobs data were the best we have seen in a long time and well above expectations. This and the first upward revisions to the annual revisions were a pleasant surprise. While a lot of people are in disbelief because of a present bearish…

The jobs report has just come out and the numbers are amazingly bullish. This article for subscribed members looks at what the report means.

First, the trajectory of monetary policy in the US, Europe, China and Japan is in a more accommodative direction. Second, the underlying economies are showing preliminary signs of stabilizing. Third, the combination of easing monetary…

The dollar is currently mixed against the majors and EMs as asset markets consolidate near recent highs. Spain raised 4.5 bn euros in a bond auction the upper end of their desired range. On the data front, Australia’s December trade surplus…

The Institute for Supply Management reports its January manufacturing survey on February 1. The Bloomberg consensus expects a small increase to 54.5 from 53.9.

Dollar is heading lower after the EU summit saw 25 of the 27 nations endorse the new fiscal compact. EuroStoxx 600 is nearly 1% higher as a result, banks up nearly 1.3%; MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.7%. Japanese data showed a surge in…

Dollar is broadly stronger against the majors and EM currencies after Greece rejected calls for direct budget control. Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index down 0.9%; EuroStoxx 600 is currently down 0.7%. Economic data saw…

This report is disturbing because of how the headline number masks real and troubling weakness in the more substantive details. Hopefully anyone trying to engineer the economy is basing their tinkering on better information than that…