Economic Data

I am less and less concerned about the eurozone periphery over the medium term because recovery in Europe looks poised to last. On the other hand, the slowdown in China could have wide-ranging consequences, particularly for countries…

We appear to be on the cusp of a more serious crisis in Argentina, as things are moving from bad to worse. Spot ARS has dropped as much as 20% earlier today, while the implied “blue chip” FX rate has fallen nearly 10% over the past two…

Wage increases are vital for Abenomics - without them the current policies are simply unsustainable (see discussion). If consumers are squeezed (see post), spending will decline and the nation will face deflationary pressures once again.…

China is a big wildcard for 2014. Growth slowed last year to a 14-year low. It isn’t yet clear if the trend will continue and what China’s leadership will do if growth does slow further.

Despite my unease about the secular headwinds of debt, bank balance sheets and wage stagnation, I must admit that many of the recent macro data points globally are pointing to growth. This is true in the US, in Europe, in Japan and in…

By Win Thin and Ilan Solot Despite the growing tensions in Thailand and the risk of military involvement, equity indices stared off the week higher and THB stable. There is some optimism that a possible delay to the February 2 vote could…

When I last wrote you I was talking about 2013 as being akin to the mid-cycle tightening year of 1994. In this view, we are well into a business cycle but it is far from over because of cyclical agents could spur the cycle on. But what…

By Marc Chandler The shockingly poor US employment data is bolstering bonds, while initial equity market gains have been reversed. It is weighing on the dollar, nearly across the board, and giving some of the accessible emerging market…

Most investors are expecting 2014 to be a good year economically and for this to translate into a good year for investing. But we have never been deep into a business cycle with rates at zero or with no chance of a Fed hike on the horizon.…

Larry Sum­mers’ take on sec­u­lar stag­na­tion looks like it will be the flavour of the month for Amer­i­can econ­o­mists for the fore­see­able future, I have to take it more seri­ously. Hence this more serious post for my first column in…