Economic Data

US GDP fell 1.0% in Q1 2014 according to the revised estimate released by the the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. A sharp downward revision was expected but this revision was unusually sharp and calls into question the continuing meme that…

By Michael Pettis It might seem almost churlish to wonder what would happen if Spain were to leave the euro. The official European position is that the battle of the euro has been pretty much won, and anyone who argues otherwise will be…

I’m back after the long weekend here in the US with a short post. Having pointed to the excesses in US credit markets on Friday, I should point out that the real economy in the US is doing pretty well at the moment. Markets can continue to…

Europe’s PMI show a divergence between Germany and France China’s manufacturing sector is still contracting The US student debt problem is growing

I am skipping the news links today to go right to the daily commentary. I want to continue my thoughts on what’s happening in Europe and why I think the ECB will become more activist. There are a number of policy options on the table for…

The data out of the eurozone this morning were below expectations. Growth in Q1 was up just 0.2% versus an anticipated 0.4% pickup. Much of this growth came from Germany, as many countries in the eurozone saw no growth or contraction. This…

Today’s post is going to be short. The theme is income inequality. My thesis on this has been that globalization is a net transfer from the developed economy middle class to developed economy elites and the emerging market middle class. I…

Jobless claims: a good coincident indicator of the US economy. If you look at changes in jobless claims it can also help you call turning points in the economy. I have done claims graphs a few times over the past six years but I haven’t…

I was reading a summary of Jeremy Grantham’s remarks in GMO’s recent quarterly analysis. And it occurred to me that a lot of what we see there is predicated on some embedded longer-term assumptions that I want to make clear. Grantham is…

The monthly employment situation summary for April 2014 was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the headline numbers were terrific. The unemployment rate measured by the household survey fell to a cyclical low of 6.3%, below…