Economic Data

I don’t have any links today, so I am going to go right into the daily piece here. Just 10 minutes ago, the US jobs numbers were released. Combined with the British composite PMI data earlier, the numbers present a rosy picture for the two…

The economic data out of the US and Spain yesterday were very good and support the idea that both of these economies are seeing recoveries that are accelerating. Some thoughts on the data below

Markit's June Manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone came out this morning. And overall, the numbers showed less strength across the board, with France showing particular weakness. You can see that Spain and Ireland were doing well though.…

I am not impressed with macro policy that is managed purely to give a cyclical boost to the economy at the expense of secular sustainability. That makes it hard to look at what’s happening with macro policy now without scepticism and…

After a number of years of stall speed growth, the US economy seems to be breaking out, even as the Fed has turned toward a tightening bias. As this cycle continues, we should not underestimate the ability of the US economy to continue…

Despite my concern over releveraging and increased household debt in the face of low wage growth, I believe the cyclical recovery in the US will remain intact for some time to come. The latest jobless claims numbers give a further boost to…

The title of this piece is a bit provocative but what follows is not intended to be a hit piece on the field of economics, rather I am going to use two recent articles on economics’ failure as a jumping off point for thinking about this…

Summary The ECB did the expected this morning and lowered interest rates enough to send bank deposit rates at the ECB into negative territory. The ECB also met market expectations with an additional easing measure by implementing an LTRO…

Today’s post is a potpourri of events I am seeing from around the world that impinge on macro. Europe. As expected, European consumer price inflation came in at 0.5% following the unexpected dip in German inflation. I believe the ECB will…

The European data out today were not particularly good. We saw a deceleration in the eurozone economy, that when combined with the deceleration in German inflation, suggests that deflationary forces could still threaten a debt deflationary…