Economic Data

The US Department of Labor released the employment last data point before tomorrow’s widely anticipated unemployment number comes out. The data showed jobless claims declining to 550,000 from 588,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This…

The July 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business disappointed as it dropped to 46.4 from 47.0. Expectations had been for 48.0. The new orders and jobs components both fell, suggesting that the services sector is still contracting and…

US private employers shed 371,000 jobs according to figures released by ADP today.  Expectations had been for a loss of 350,000. As this report was released two days before the employment situation summary that gives us the…

The Department of Commerce released the Personal Income and Outlays data for June 2009.  What the data showed was a very unbalanced month in which personal income and savings dropped but personal consumption expenditures rose.  In…

Today the July 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business was released and the widely followed PMI Index came in ahead of expectations at 48.9.  Any number below 50 represents contraction, so this figure shows that the manufacturing sector…

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery.  I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan…

Down 1.5% was the consensus expectation. But Q1 was revised down to minus 6.4% from 5.5%. The GDP Deflator for Q2 came in at 0.2%, which shows that disinflation risks tipping into deflation still.  The dollar is weaker and the short…

Late last year, I anticipated that the global slowdown would bring China’s GDP growth down to 2%, a level that would make most nations envious but which would have been catastrophic for China.  In the end, robust government stimulus…

The US Department of Labor released data showing that 584,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment insurance this past week.  This is up sharply from the upwardly revised 559,000 last week and 524,000 two weeks ago.  The…

On Friday, when the BEA reports the initial 2nd quarter GDP numbers, it will do so based on completely revised historical data.  Expect some surprises. What is coming on July 31st is what is known as benchmark revisions of the…