Economic Data

A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

The short vol trade may now be over. Bond yields will again reach levels that causes angst for equity markets. And equities will tumble. Rinse and repeat.

Hallmarks of recession are all around about the time they happen if one looks close enough — certainly in 2008. I don’t think we are in a recession by any stretch, right now — not even close.

Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year

The Atlanta Fed updated its nowcast model today with the ISM results we reported earlier. The numbers are big.

The latest ISM Manufacturing Index came out earlier today. The numbers were strong, and the 69.1% reading was above expectations.

Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.

Small business optimism is at a 10-year high on the eve of the latest US GDP report - another bullish indicator. Inflation is the key to how this impacts bonds longer-term.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.

We see economic growth everywhere in the global economy for the first time in many years. Let's put this economic period in context and talk about opportunities and threats.