Economic Data

This report shows the US economy in a good way. In terms of things the Fed watches, both employment and inflation look good.

This post was originally published on Patreon on 30 May 2018 Yesterday I said that I believed the Italian meltdown presented a buying opportunity because it was not existential. And today, calm has returned, actually sooner than I had…

Global growth has been slowing. But we have plenty of time before a recession or financial crisis hits. My worries are about financial fragility caused by high asset prices and corporate releveraging.

As Wednesday begins, the question has to be: is the slowdown temporary or is it going to be more pronounced? And if it is pronounced, what do central banks do?

The US Treasury yield curve has resumed the flattening that caused bond markets worry last Fall. This is a negative signal for future growth. Curve flattening signals Fed tightening. With the primary risk overtightening. I expect a…

It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…

The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…

There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.

We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.

The Fed as the monopoly supply of reserves can and will push the market until it cries uncle. Powell's testimony before Congress is the Fed Chairman's first warning shot. Caveat emptor.