earnings

The big problem with Amazon is valuation. It's hard to justify paying 90x this quarter's earnings for a company that is as mature as Amazon is, irrespective of the top-line growth.

Between 1985 and 2018, the global average statutory corporate tax rate fell by more than half. This column uses new macroeconomic data to argue that profit shifting is a key driver of this decline. Close to 40% of multinational profits were…

My first weekly post at Creit Writedowns Pro includes some thoughts on Tesla, Trump's Fed choices, the US trade war with China, M&A and corporate earnings.

In 2012, to protect user privacy, the FTC mandated regulatory controls at Facebook that it has not made. Therefore, Facebook faces potential fines and greater regulatory oversight. This will be expensive, and could potentially cause…

Technological disruption poses serious threats to incumbent businesses. Here are two examples from Artificial intelligence and Walmart's earnings showing how this disruption occurs.

Today’s Wall Street Journal shows that large-cap technology stocks are priced as if economic and earnings growth will continue for the significant future. However, this late in the cycle, the probability of a hiccup increases, making share…

Yesterday I retweeted an interesting tweet by Business Insider’s Henry Blodget which references an article on data compiled by Barclays on profit mean reversion and recession. The gist of the article is that a profits recession generally…

My thesis for the global economy right now is that global nominal GDP growth will continue to slow, leading to more policy accommodation, with the outliers converging toward zero. The question mark in this is the Federal Reserve. Generally,…

This past week, I have been focusing on the US economy and the Fed’s reaction function. I would summarize my view as positive about the cyclical trajectory of the US economy but concerned about so-called secular stagnation due to high…

Despite the crisis in Greece, I have been talking about rotating into Europe because I believe equities are priced more reasonably than the US and because fixed income assets will get a boost from QE. I want to talk a bit more about this…