double dip

The jobs numbers in the US were weak. There was no change in non-farm payrolls. Unemployment was unchanged from July at 9.1%. Underemployment was 16.2%. Total revisions to previous months’ data were –58,000, meaning the number today was…

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago.

I don’t ascribe that much importance to confidence data as a leading indicator. Moreover, as we saw during the 2000s, low consumer savings can bolster GDP growth for quite a long time. Nevertheless, I agree with the underlying message here,…

ECRI’s underlying message is this: we are in a decade-long post-credit crisis struggle which will mean high unemployment even if policy makers focused on jobs, which they have not.

A few weeks ago (July 7th) we wrote a comment entitled "Nothing Matters Until It Does". Now it suddenly does all matter, although all of the problems every one is talking about today have been pretty obvious for some time. These include the…

In case you did not notice it, the much discussed "range" on the SP500 broke in spectacular fashion today as the short rollers bypassed the 1250 mark in the same style as the Germany panzer passed the Maginot line back in the early stages…

In Germany movements in GDP follow movements in the rate of expansion of exports. Let’s not get into why that is for the moment (think Germany’s particular demography), and just consider the possibility, despite all the talk over the years…

As Mr Zapatero put it on Saturday, when he announced the date of Spain’s general election, the decision “is in the country’s interest” since from now on there will be certainty, and “certainty is stability”. While it is quite possible that…

After the US GDP revisions we saw on Friday, it is clear that the US economy is at stall speed. But globally, we are seeing a slowdown in Europe and emerging markets too, especially China. And the fact is monetary and fiscal policy are…

The latest batch of GDP numbers saw some heavy downward revisions to prior numbers, especially during the recession of 2008-2009. In fact, the GDP revisions were so extensive, they put us back in the 'technical recovery' phase i.e. where we…