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Browsing Tag
Donald Trump
Stocks fall below 200-day moving average as concern over Trump’s policies mounts
The upward momentum for US stocks has broken. The S&P 500 closed below it's 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2016. Chief among the factors causing alarm was China's decision to retaliate against US tariffs. More…
Pre-market: Market de-FANGed and reactions to Trump Unchained
First, the recent post-Facebook scandal market volatility has seen Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google follow Facebook down. Second, Donald Trump is acting more boldly and more aggressively now on his economic agenda, on trade and on foreign…
The Significance of the US – South Korea Trade Agreement
Many consider the US and South Korea agreement the first success of President Trump's trade strategy. We are less sanguine. We do expect other countries to make concessions to the US grudgingly. But we are concerned the US will be…
Links: De-dollarization, top down US policy and the new Cold War
As Trade War Heats Up, Biggest Currency Whales Make Their Move - Great article. Central banks are starting to diversify away from the US dollar. Many Wall Street strategists now see the euro as a viable alternative. My view: this shift…
John Bolton’s appointment by Trump confirms serious geopolitical risk
Donald Trump tweeted that he has appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor. Bolton is a neo-conservative thinker with hawkish views on North Korea and Iran. His appointment is a sign that "Trump Unchained"is a change toward a more…
Questions about the bond bear market and ‘Trump unchained’
In March, signs of inflation have subsided and bonds have rallied. Maybe the bond bear market Gross and Dalio foresee isn't actually going to happen. A lot of the future price action hinges on future monetary policy.
Geopolitical risks as Trump cleans house
The Fed will play a key role in 2018 if the US economy slows. But the real unknown is geopolitical, much of it driven by Donald Trump. As Trump's poll numbers have remained low, as the stock market has begun to falter and Republican…
Post-market: JGBs, Treasuries and a global growth slowdown as Trump consolidates power
It seems like just a week ago, we were talking about synchronized global growth. Suddenly signs of deceleration are everywhere. And bond markets are feeling it. I don't see the economy falling out of bed though, barring an exogenous shock.…
Post-Market Commentary: Tillerson, Tariffs and Trouble
The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…