demographics

It was almost exactly nine years ago that I wrote called “Corporatism masquerading as liberty” at Credit Writedowns. The gist was that, as I put it then the “‘Corporatist’ is a kleptocrat masquerading as a believer in liberty. He uses…

Labour shellacking and SNP domination The UK general election results are in. And, for me, the most striking feature of the outcome is the absolute thrashing the Labour Party received. With only 201 seats of 650 constituencies in…

I was thinking about this topic this morning and I wanted to run it by you. The genesis of it all was an interview I did with Rohan Grey and Kevin Muir on Real Vision regarding MMT. And one conclusion I drew - partially motivated by the…

The narrative that emerged after the nomination battle over Brett Kavanaugh was dominated by claims that the Republican base had been energized by disgust at the so-called liberal mob that protested Kavanaugh's nomination. But I believe…

When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics.

Quick hit here. I have been banging on about lowflation, repeatedly suggesting it is here to stay. The Fed, on the other hand begs to differ and is pre-emptively normalizing rates, as a result. No matter how you look at this, there’s a…

For managers of money, the post-crisis low growth world has had major implications for asset allocation strategies. Assumptions about returns are greatly affected by the both monetary easing used to counteract the slowing and the yield…

Mean Reversion of Wealth is one of the six structural mega-trends that we have identified. As is pretty obvious when looking at chart 2, wealth creation during the great bull market of 1981-2000 was quite extraordinary and, in our opinion,…

The abrupt spike in interest rates from mid-April to mid-May is very unlikely to be the beginning of something much bigger and much more likely to be the sort of occasional panic attack that Japan has seen so many of in recent years.

Going forward, equity markets are likely to have a much bigger impact on the economy than has been the case in the past. This is a simple conclusion derived from the fact that total equity market value today is 1.2x GDP. 35 years ago, when…