default

If E.U. leaders are smart, they will understand that the turmoil they fear from a Greek restructuring will be much worse if that default is a unilateral one forced by a population that has taken to the streets.

I still believe the political price for a breakup is large but the chances of one are increasing because the policy decisions that governments and the EU are making cannot be maintained politically in the periphery or in the core. Unless we…

In my view, a CDS trigger could be a Lehman-style event, yes. Moreover, only a hard restructuring – meaning principal reduction would actually have any meaningful impact on peripheral CDS or interest rates. So, I expect the euro zone…

Within the context of our Macro-Global Discretionary Managed Accounts Trading Program, we are bearish on European stock markets, and are becoming increasingly interested in the bearish side of the US equity market. We are bearish on bond…

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of talking on CNBC along with Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman about the European sovereign debt crisis. I also wrote a piece in the New York Times about the same issue, concentrated on Greece. While…

The European finance ministers approved an aid package for Portugal. Ireland is still seeking better terms. Although France's effective corporate tax rate is lower than Ireland's, Sarkozy is reportedly refusing to sanction some easier terms…

Below is the text from the letter from US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Congress via Harry S. Reid, Majority Leader of the Senate, informing Reid that the debt ceiling has been breached.

If the strongest argument against going back to the Drachma always was that this would imply default, now that default is coming, why not allow Greece to devalue? As Krugman says, the issue isn’t whether Greece would openly decide to exit…

Each new version of the European debt crisis will spook the bond markets yet again. When you look at the economies of the euro-peripheral countries, it is hard to see how they can dig themselves out without a great deal of pain and serious…

Guest Author Polyvios Petropolous argues that the European Union must put in place the contingency plans for a Greek debt restructuring in secret before the plan is announced and executed. To end bailouts without such a plan in place would…