default

I want to highlight three things here from Wolfgang Munchau on the euro zone because he reaches conclusions I have reached. Below are excerpts of what Munchau writes about a Greek default, Italian solvency and euro zone dissolution.

Here’s what I am hearing. At the end, I will tell you how far-fetched I think these things are.

EUR/USD and European stocks recover amid hopes of Greece aid; market shrugs off Italy’s downgrade. BBH Sovereign Credit Rating Model suggests that further downgrades for Italy and Spain are likely.

In a post mirroring the policy prescription that German economist Hans-Werner Sinn recently gave, Nouriel Roubini advises Greece to default and exit the euro zone. Where Sinn is concerned about German taxpayers paying the bill left for…

In order for banks to hedge against multiple defaults in the eurozone periphery, banks must increase the ratio of equity to total assets at least five percent, a German researcher has argued. Dorothea Schäfer worked out for the Frankfurther…

What Sinn is making plain is that Greece’s balance of payments problems would not go away if Greece were to remain in the euro zone. And this would mean more indebtedness and further transfers to Greece down the line when they get into…

Greece needs to default too. The right thing to have happen is for Greece to default in a hard restructuring as part of a comprehensive credible plan. The goal is to right the ship by getting all of the biggest debtors within the Maastricht…

Market cautiously optimistic amid hopes of China bond purchases and Merkel, Sarkozy conference. Moody’s downgrades two French banks; EUR resilient off the back of potential policy response. Brazilian retail sales stronger than expected;…

That was the question that RT's Lauren Lyster was asking last night. My short answer is not necessarily. The long answer is that policy makers have a lot of ways to continue the ball rolling. They can allow Greece to default and…

Implicit in my post explaining that Germany is preparing for Greek bankruptcy is the view amongst European policy makers that default does not equal euro zone exit. I think I should reiterate this because a lot of people are acting like an…