debt

In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery.

We received a phone call over the weekend from a close friend and someone who reads our comments religiously. He had a question for us. He wanted to know if we were still in the secular bear market camp or have we thrown in the towel since…

In this issue of the newsletter I want to sketch out a scenario in which rather than analyze policy announcements or make predictions I try to lay out what are the various possible paths open to China. The scenario concerns trade. China’s…

Happy Friday. Here's a quick gold-level note note on what I think is going on in the markets and the economy right now that I am making freely available. Turning to the paradigm I set out in 2009, the following points frame the secular…

This is a gold level post for members only.

This is a silver level post asking to what degree the US recovery is fuelled by household sector releveraging.

This daily commentary is a bronze level members-only post. I saw a number of commentaries this past weekend and late in the week that were gloomier than one would have expected. In the US, consumer credit is expanding as are jobs and most…

This weekly update is a gold level post for members only. There has been a lot of talk in the media of late about financial repression. This newsletter article is designed to explore what financial repression is, what it means for your…

Naturally austerity isn’t popular, and evidently it doesn’t work as intended, but then this was already known before we started on this course, so it isn’t really a surprise. But what alternative do the Euro Area’s imprisoned periphery…

Michael Pettis predicts a hard landing in China. How much will growth slow? The World Bank report apparently doesn’t say, but the consensus has been slowly moving down towards 5-6% annual growth over the next few years. That’s better than…