currency wars

The global capital markets imploded in the second half of last week and investors spent the weekend contemplating the significance. The main focus was on the emerging markets, which were especially hard hit. Emerging market crisis have…

On Friday, I wrote about the slowdown in China, the bear market in commodities, and the volatility in emerging markets as being all interrelated. Of course, there is more to the selloff in emerging markets than just the slowdown in China…

Back in early December the government of Argentina raised taxes on credit card purchases in foreign currency to 35% from 20%. Online Christmas shopping abroad became increasingly expensive. However, dollars continued to flow out of the…

Select two countries with the worst performing currencies (against USD) over the past 4 months and go long equity indices of those two countries. Now select the two best performing currencies and short the indices of those countries (to the…

The capital outflow from the emerging markets is proving as destabilizing as the previous inflows. Pundits can talk about currency wars all they want, but the real issue is the ability to cope with volatile capital flows, which is the…

One often hears the refrain "the market is not the economy", but what does that really mean? I am going to explain it in my terms here in the context of the global reflation trade - EM meltdown paradox.

Emerging markets currencies are getting hammered across the board today on the back of the FOMC minutes. Many are touching multi-year or even all-time lows. This provides further confirmation that the Fed's recent monetary stimulus effort…

In the last few days the USD/INR exchange rate exceeded the psychologically important level of 60 for the first time in history. Foreign investors are panicking, as capital leaves emerging markets.

When I see the chart for Euro zone NPLs and look at the numbers, I think debt deflation. And this is exactly the problem with the euro zone's policy mix.

The Swedish krona is somewhat firmer today but it is the biggest loser among the major currencies this week. It has lost about 2.3% against the dollar and 2.1% against the euro. According to Bloomberg, this is the single biggest weekly…