currencies

We have long felt that the market was underestimating tightening potential in 2011, but it appears to be coming around to our view. Weekly central bank survey shows market is now looking for an end-2011 policy rate of 12.25%, up from 12.0%…

The US dollar continues its rally with the euro the major culprit of the market’s negativity as risks of contagion appear to be spreading to the core. Despite more positive economic data from Germany (this time favorable unemployment…

The under-current from Putin's remarks has much to do with anti-US Dollar sentiment because he said specifically that having the U.S. dollar as the sole reserve currency "is definitely something negative." Putin is serious about ditching…

Europe is engulfed in a financial crisis that is also becoming a political crisis.  Sweden stands out as an exception and we affirm our expectation of the krona's out performance in period ahead. Sweden's economy contracted 5.3% last…

This is an analysis of the remaining options in the euro zone post-Ireland bailout. This period in Europe reminds me very much of the period after the Indy Mac failure in the U.S. after which markets were in a permanent state of stress.…

The euro continues to come under pressure and is making new lows in early North American turn over despite talk of interest from an Asian central bank. The euro has slipped below its 200-day moving average (~$1.3130) for the first time…

The US dollar continues its rally with the largest movements against the euro as the market is clearly disappointed with the rescue package of Ireland. Despite a three year high increase in euro-zone confidence, the euro continues to…

It seems like it’s only a matter of time before Portugal succumbs to the contagion. As seen in EM crises of the past, we simply cannot ignore the fact that contagion remains a very strong force and so we see little chance that Portugal…

The US dollar is up across the board as concerns about European peripherals festered and comments from North Korea fanned fears of further escalation on the peninsula. Despite the likely announcement of an €85bln rescue package for Ireland…

After an initial dip, the dollar edged higher in the Asian session, along with the yen, though trading ranges were pretty subdued. Comments from People's Bank of China officials suggested the central bank will adopt more measures to rein in…