currencies

More broadly, the recovery from the March tragedy appears to be running out of steam. Retail sales which surged in the April-June period fell in both July and August and deflation appears to be threatening again. The year-over-year pace of…

Central European borrowers loaded up on cheap Swiss franc and euro loans (mainly from Austria and Switzerland) in the lead up to the credit crisis because of higher nominal rates in central Europe. When the crisis hit, these loans became…

Dollar is paring back its overnight gains as Germany ratifies changes to EFSF; European banks higher. Ratification of the EFSF sets the tone for a shift in the political agenda; Q2 US GDP expected higher. Brazil’s August wholesale IGP-M…

Warren Mosler argues that it is the realization that the ECB is the issuer of the currency, and is therefore not revenue constrained, that leads to the conclusion that not allowing Greece to default best serves public purpose.

Most of the writers whose work appear on this blog have long warned that the extend and pretend strategy in Europe would fail. Now, it seems that Europe is moving to a hard restructuring for Greece and recapitalisation for bank creditors.…

Market sentiment continue to improve modestly; European stocks and US futures both advance. Finland ratifies changes to EFSF, Germany votes tomorrow; EUR/USD trades just ahead of 1.37. EM price action of IDR & KRW reinforces themes;…

Market confidence continues to improve amid hopes that euro zone policy makers take bold actions. Slovenia begins vote on EFSF ratification; sharp shifts in positioning may prompt mean reversion. Hong Kong’s trade figures showed a softening…

ECB member Mersh called the speculation over a 50 bp cut "wild", according to news accounts. However, given the dismal flash PMI readings and its correlation with GDP, the market is aware that the ECB can indeed cut rates next week, even…

European stocks higher in part from ECB and potential policy action; dollar softer against majors. G10 market focus this week again EZ with EFSF votes, bonds auctions, Greece aid; US macro data. EMs are likely to be dominated by DM…

As I see it, we cannot continue with the existing currency arrangement. Countries like Spain (I am reverting to my habit of calling all the deficit countries “Spain” and all the surplus countries “Germany”) simply will not adjust quickly…